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Saturday 08 August 11:40

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AFL ROUND 11

BRISBANE LIONS VS WESTERN BULLDOGS

SATURDAY AUGUST 8, 7.40 PM, GABBA, BRISBANE

Brisbane will be looking to reply to their loss against Port which got ugly, the best possible way, on the field an exert themselves at home against a decent team, recording a solid win.  The thing is, the same can be said for the Western Bulldogs, though they don’t quite have the superb form that the Lions did before last week, they are coming off a loss.  To reinsert themselves as Premiership contenders, the only option is to get on the field and beat a team just like the Lions, which makes for a blockbusting game at the Gabba Saturday night.  Depending on results, Brisbane can undoubtedly take 2nd place back, while the Dogs entrench themselves in the top 8 fight, with the opportunity to move into the top 4 if they come up with some excellent results.  By game time, the weather should have improved nicely, though a breeze may still impact the ball-movement and the turf will likely be a little damp, causing heavy legs, especially due to the high amount of fixtures in the last few weeks.

Ruckman, Matt Eagles who won a reality TV show to gain his contract has been given another chance for the Lions, while another very interesting inclusion for the Lions is Birchall a former Hawthorn Premiership player.  Also coming into the side is key Midfielder Rich and McStay who is healthy again, which is a big bonus for the Lions.  Missing out on selection for Brisbane are Skinner, Ballenden and Payne, while Rayner is unfit due to a hamstring issue.  The ups and downs of rookie Weightman’s season continue as he is omitted again for the Bulldogs, and is joined by Roarke Smith who was only up in the main team for one clash also.  Crozier misses due to a toe injury, while coming in are Naughton a 20-year old key Forward, Bailey dale for his 51st and Tasmanian Ryan Gardiner.

These teams met in round 20 of 2019 when the Lions won by 3 goals, mostly thanks to them holding the Bulldogs goalless in the opening quarter, and Charlie Cameron kicking 4 goals, while Martin dominated in the Ruck.  Brisbane have just 23 wins from 56 matches against the Bulldogs, and the Dogs did win one also in 2019, by 4 goals, though the Lions have obviously been more consistent in 2020. The $1.42 win market for Brisbane may be a little generous given the awful effort against Richmond a few days ago, while the Doggies are $2.90, with a margin predicted of 14.5-points.  Brisbane will need to find the form they showed for much of the season, while the Doggies have really only shown the capabilities of beating mediocre teams thus far in 2020.

PREDICTION: Brisbane by 20ish.

BETTING TIP: $1.87 is probably night the ideal return, but the 1-39 Brisbane market is the most likely outcome.